Strategic Timing of Retail Expansion Based on Store Performance: A Study Case of Harmonis Swalayan

Independent supermarkets increasingly face challenges in sustaining growth amid intensifying retail competition. This study evaluates the capacity and demand of Harmonis Swalayan, a supermarket in Pontianak, West Kalimantan, by integrating operational capacity assessment with demand forecasting. Using internal operational and sales data from 2023–2025, the analysis employs six capacity indicators, Monte Carlo simulation for checkout queuing, and five time-series forecasting methods. The findings reveal significant capacity constraints: SKU density reached 1.55, indicating inventory exceeded shelving capacity by 55%; supplier compliance declined from 120.5% in 2023 to 96.9%; checkout utilization during peak hours reached 0.94, with nearly two-thirds of customers waiting more than five minutes. Among the forecasting methods, decomposition achieved the highest accuracy (MAPE = 2.8%), projecting transactions to increase from 833,875 in 2025 to approximately 917,500 in 2026 and 999,400 in 2027. A projected 10% traffic increase would push checkout utilization beyond full capacity, indicating that expansion is already overdue. The analysis recommends adding approximately 578 m² of selling space through a second store. These findings demonstrate that retail expansion decisions should integrate both capacity and demand analyses rather than relying solely on managerial intuition.